Bloggfrslur mnaarins, aprl 2011

Hvers vegna Bretar fara ekki dmsml - enn ein grein Financial Times viurkennir sterkan mlsta slands Icesave-mli

  • "tti breskra stjrnvalda vi a dmur gegn slandi Icesave-deilunni geti skapa btakrfu hendur eim sar vegna falls breskra banka skrir hvers vegna au hafa ekki beitt sr af hrku fyrir v a deilan komi til kasta dmara. etta er mat Johns Dizard, dlkahfundar hj Financial Times um ratuga skei." (Mbl.is.)

Eins og kunnugt er, hefurFinancial Times leiurum snum teki afstu me slendingum Icesave-mlinu. En Dizard essi jtar , a hann hafi gert r fyrir v, a slenzkir kjsendur myndu samykkja Icesave-III-samninginn. egar a gerist ekki, tkst hann hendur a skoa rkin fyrir v, a slenzkir skattgreiendur ttu ekki a bta fyrir [hugsanlegt] tap Icesave-innistna, og hann vari nokkrum tma til eirrar athugunar.

Niurstaa hans hans var s, a honum "var a ljsara, hvers vegna einkum(why, in particular) brezk stjrnvld voru ekki kja fj um a skja krfur snar fyrir dmi." N skilur hann, af hverju au brezku stjrnvld hafi ekki stt mli af hrku fyrir dmstlum. "Bresk stjrnvld vilji elilega ekki skapa fordmi sem geti kalla har krfur breska banka sar." (Mbl. dag, s. 6: Rkin bera ekki byrg; einnig styttra mli forsufrtt ar.) styttri frttinni segir beinlnis, a tti yfirvaldanna brezku stafi af v, a "dmur gegn slandi Icesave-deilunni geti skapa btakrfu hendur eim sar vegna falls breskra banka".

Dizard vitnar einnig a "lit Tobiasar Fuchs, srfrings lgum hj Evrpuhsklanum Frankfurt, a sland hafi ekki broti gegn kvum tilskipunar Evrpuingsins og rsins um innlnatryggingarkerfi," .e. gegn tilskipuninni 94/19/EC. Vi hr jarheiri hfum ur vitna til lits Tobiasar Fuchs. Hr sst, a honum er teki fullt mark einu helzta viskiptablai heims.

Og hr er rsnan pylsuendanum, enn eitt atrii til a sannfra hina efagjrnu:

  • Dizard bendir a 2004 hafi Evrpudmstllinn rskura a engin rkisbyrg hlytist af fullkomnu eftirliti me fjrmlastarfsemi. (Mbl.)

S "rksemd" hafi oft heyrzt hr, a hi slenzka FME hafi brugizt essu mli og a ess vegna ttum vi, breyttir borgarar, a borga Icesave! Hr, essari upprifjun Dizards dmsfordmi, kemur ljs, a jafnvel tt eftirlit FME hefi veri fullkomi, bri slenzka rki hr enga byrg.

ar a auki bar brezka fjrmlaeftirliti (FSA) lka byrg v a veita Landsbankanum, sem a hafi veitt starfsleyfi Bretlandi, fullt eftirlit.

Og ar til vibtar ber a benda , a ekki skapaist heldur rkisbyrg vegna ess a reglunum hr (.e. lgum nr. 98/1999 um innistutryggingar) hefi veri btavant, v a – eins og sagi grein hr vef jarheiurs – "ESB segir ESA hafa reglulega stafest gti regluverks slands" um tryggingasj innistueigenda.

Rk Icesave-borgunarsinna hafa hruni ein af rum. a er kominn tmi til a jta a fullum fetum og fylgja v eftir verki! En hvort nverandi stjrnvld su bezt til ess hf a sj um a fylgja eftir rtti slands mlinu, skulum vi lta lesendur okkar um a meta athugasemdum hr.

Jn Valur Jensson.


mbl.is Bretar forast dmsml
Tilkynna um vieigandi tengingu vi frtt

HV EKKI YFIR 90% NEI GEGN KGUNARSAMNINGNUM?

FORSETINN12

Kgunarmli er ekki bi a hafi veri fellt enn einu sinni og ekki einu sinni nnd vi a vera loki. Ekki me tlaa skudlga enn alingi, embttum, sklum og stjrn landsins. Og t um allar kvar. Og enn enginn veri haldinn byrgur fyrir samsri um glpinn ICESAVE.

N tti nsta skref mlinu a vera a gera opinbera starfsmenn og nokkra mehjlpara lagalega byrga fyrir a tla og vinna hart a a koma lglegri nauung yfir samlanda.


Jafnframt tti a kra breska og hollenska ramenn fyrir a ljga upp okkur rkisbyrg sem var aldrei neinn ftur fyrir neinum lgum.


Mli er ekki bara innlent ml tla til heimabrks eins og Steingrmi httir vi a lsa kgunarvileitni breskra og hollenskra stjrnmlamanna. Nei, mli kemur heiminum vi.


Vi getum ekki og megum ekki leyfa kgurum og slurberum a komast upp me a hafa tla a gera brnin okkar a skuldarlum erlendra velda a sekju. Mli er mannrttindaml og kemur llum heiminum vi.


Hv sgu ekki yfir 90% landsmanna NEI nna eins og mars fyrra? J, a orsakai fjrstuddur og rkisstuddur og vel undirbinn rgur og undirrur ICESAVE-STJRNARINNAR, blaamanna og frttamila Jhnnu og co, selabanka Jhnnu og heils hers erlendra og innlendra J-MANNA sem mundu hafa hagnast af kgunarsamningnum gegn okkur. Og rgurvitsmunablaamanna eins og Jhanns Haukssonar sem forsetinn rllai upp, mars Valdimarssonar sem brenglar frttir erlendum frttamilum og ru Kristnar Einhverrrar me sna fugsnnu rssnesku rlettu.


Gleymum aldrei htunum um kaldakol og Kbur Norursins ef vi ekki jttumst undir glpinn. ar fru fremstir yfirfalsarar eins og Gylfi Magnsson, Gumundur Gunnarsson, Jn Hannibalsson, Margrt Kristmannsdttir, orvaldur Gylfason, rlfur Matthasson, Vilhjlmur Egilsson, Vilhjlmur orsteinsson. Kallast etta ekki rkynjun??


Ekkert var elilegt vi 59,9% NEI-i. lglegt ml tti aldrei a komast gegnum lggjafarvaldi og skapa httu kgun gegn hinum sem segja NEI.

Elle Ericsson.


InDefence fri rk gegn lkkun lnshfiseinkunnar

Um lei og frttist, a matsfyrirtki Standard & Poor's hefur dag "breytt horfum fyrir lnshfismat bandarska rkisins r stugum neikvar" vegna mikilla opinberra skulda og fjrlagahalla, er elilegt a vi leium aftur hugann a v lnshfismati Moody's, sem forseti slands og andstingar Icesave III tku lti mark og mrg rk benda til, a lti hafi veri a marka, enda illa undirbyggt, hripa 2 bls. eftir skjta knnun mla; og jafnvel sjlf Icesave-stjrnvld okkar eru n fari a sna vi blainu eim efnum!

Eftirfarandi ttur ttektar Arnar Arnarsonar sasta viskiptablai Morgunblasins, sl. fimmtudag, er lrdmsrkur:

MTRKUM HALDI LOFTI

InDefence frir rk gegn lkkun lnshfiseinkunnar

InDefence-hpurinn sendi vikunni greinarger til aljlegra matsfyrirtkja ar sem fr eru rk fyrir eirri skoun a ekki s rttltanlegt a lkka lnshfismat rkissjs umfram a sem n er kjlfar ess a Icesave-samningnum var hafna jaratkvagreislu.

greinargerinni er meal annars bent a fjrmgnunarhorfur rkisins til lengri tma liti su vel viranlegar. Bent er a skuldbindingar rkissjs utan efnahagsreiknings su litlar evrpsku samhengi meal annars vegna ess a slenska lfeyrissjskerfi s sjssfnunarkerfi lkt v sem tkast mrgum rum lndum. Ennfremur er fullyrt a litlar lkur su v a byrgir falli rki vegna Landsvirkjunar og balnasjs nstu rum. er vsa til nlegrar skrslu srfringa Selabankans sem snir meal annars a undirliggjandi viskiptajfnuur s um 13% af landsframleislu og a samt rum ttum sni a slenska hagkerfi skapi gjaldeyristekjur ngjanlegum mli til a hgt s a stula afnmi gjaldeyrishafta egar fram skir. kemur fram greinarger InDefence a svo a Icesave-deilan standi leyst s gjaldeyrisstaa Selabankans traust og nemi um 46% af landsframleislu og dugi til a standa straum af llum erlendum gjalddgum rkisins fram til rsins 2015. er einnig bent ara tti sem ttu a stula a skrra lnshfismati bor vi sveigjanleika hagkerfisins sem og a endurreistu viskiptabankarnir su me hsta eiginfjrhlutfall sem ekkist Vesturlndum og vi stofnun eirra hafi eignasfnin veri hreinsu upp.(Tilvitnun lkur.)

Sbr. einnig fyrri grein hr: Galla Icesave-lit - gagnrni r msum ttum

JVJ.


mbl.is Neikvar horfur fyrir bandarska lnshfiseinkunn
Tilkynna um vieigandi tengingu vi frtt

SNIUGUR STEINGRMUR.

Icesave: Fundir me samninganefndum gengi vel

g man hva mr br hrikalega egar Steingrmur J. kom fram opinberlega fyrir hfnun ICESAVE 3 og sagi a hann og Jhanna vru best til ess fallin a gta hagsmuna okkar ef vi felldum kgunarsamninginn og mli fri fyrir dmstla. Kannski sagi hann a almennar og ekki orrtt svona, enda fri hann aldrei a kalla glsisamninginn kgunar-neitt.

Man lka hva g skrifai undir pistli ekki lngu eftir a vi felldum ICESAVE 3: Nverandi stjrnarflokkar ttu ekki a vera a tala mli okkar nna enda geta eir a ekki. ALLS EKKI. a mun aldrei ganga og au munu bara verja verk eirra sjlfra eftir a hafa tla a koma nauunginni yfir okkur.

En a var undir mnum sasta pistli: FORSETINN OKKAR STERKASTI LEITOGI.


AMX skrifai um drepfyndni Steingrms:

Brandari Steingrms J: Vi erum best til ess fallin a gta hagsmuna slands

Og get ekki sleppt essu:

lafur Ragnar rllar Jhanni Haukssyni upp

Elle Ericsson.


Economist fjallar um Icesave

Skemmtileg er myndin me tti Charlemains Economist gr: Maur horfir yfir hafi tilslands og sr eldfjall gjsa, en gosmkkurinn myndar stafina NO! Auvita er Icesave og jaratkvi mli.A parable of two debtors nefnist greinin, og ar er spurt undirfyrirsgn: Does Iceland hold lessons for Ireland, and the rest of troubled Europe?

Eina millifyrirsgnin er dmiger fyrir brezkan hmor:Between Ice and Ire, en ire ir reii. Vi slendingar erum sem sagt gaddfrenir gagnvart Icesave-krfunum, er rarnir vareiir yfir eigin standi og afstu Esb.

Afar stuttlega er ar fjalla um rkin gegn Icesave-samningnum. Eins og lesendur essarar vefsu ekkja vel, er etta heldur ftkleg lsing afstu okkar sem sgum NEI:

  • The “no” camp argued that Iceland had no legal duty to stand behind €4 billion ($6 billion) of compensation to foreign depositors in Icesave, the online arm of a failed private bank, Landsbanki. The matter will now go to an international court, although Iceland says most or even all the money will be repaid from the disposal of Landsbanki’s assets. Beyond the legal arguments, the vote was an act of defiance. Icelanders were offended at their treatment by big countries, notably Britain, which had invoked anti-terrorist laws to seize Icelandic assets.

greininni er vitna fjra menn um sland: Halldr Laxness, Carl Bildt, Magns rna Sklason r InDefence, Steingrm J. Sigfsson og orvald Gylfason, fyrir utan a sem kemur fram essari klausu (fyrst um rland):

  • Some left-wing parliamentarians have demanded an Iceland-style referendum on the conditions of Ireland’s bail-out. Look, they say, the sky has not fallen in on Iceland. (Portuguese activists are also calling for a referendum on any planned austerity measures.) There is an epic quality about the way this remote island of glaciers and volcanoes has stood up to powerful states and economic orthodoxy. For its cheerleaders, such as Paul Krugman, an American Nobel laureate in economics, Iceland is a model for another north Atlantic island ruined by bad banks: Ireland.
Af hinum remur, sem lifa, er enginn beinlnis hlynntur hinum skra mlsta NEI-sinna, jafnvel ekki Magns rni, en hann er reyndar me hinum linustu hpi InDefence-manna.
Charlemain (sem a heita hfundur fastra tta aftast Economist og eru vitaskuld byrg ritstjra ar) segir a rtt fyrir a slendingum hafi veri boin "hagstari kjr", hafi a ekki duga til n hitt, a efnahagsleg vissa blasi vi og Hollendingar hti a htta vi a styja aild landsins a Esb. Hann veltir fyrir sr, hvoru landinu farnist betur me kvaranir snar eftir bankakreppuna, slandi ea rlandi, og telur a rtt fyrir a hr hafi verblgan fari upp 18% (en komin niur elilegar tlur) og eftirspurn mrkuum minnka miki, s atvinnuleysi um tvfalt meira rlandi og meira lnstraust fyrirtkjum hr, jafnvel mguleiki sm-hagvexti rinu. Menn vera a lesa sr meira til blainu sjlfu, hr:Economist.com/blogs/charlemagne

JVJ.


Galla Icesave-lit - gagnrni r msum ttum

Grein eftir rn Arnarson viskiptablai Mbl. gr, Moody's var bent galla Icesave-liti,virist leia ljs, a harla veikum grunni hafi "ruslflokks"-sp ess matfyrirtkis byggzt, mia vi a hafna Icesave III.

  • Srfringar settu sig samband vi Moody's eftir a lit um hrif hfnunar Icesave lnshfismat rkissjs var birt febrar • Bentu a stafesting Icesave-samningsins myndi festa gjaldeyrishft sessi en ekki flta fyrir afnmi eirra eins og Moody's fri rk fyrir

M.a. hafa GAM Management, IFS-greining og (GAMMA) InDefence-hpurinn sent rkstudda gagnrni hi tveggja blasna mat, sem Moody's gaf t fyrir jaratkvagreisluna.

  • InDefence-hpurinn sendigreinarger til aljlegra matsfyrirtkja ar sem fr eru rk fyrir eirri skoun a ekki s rttltanlegt a lkka lnshfismat rkissjs umfram a sem n er kjlfar ess a Icesave-samningnum var hafna jaratkvagreislu. (.A.)

etta er mikil grein eftir rn, hr er smhluti hennar sem snishorn, en allir sem lta sig essi ml vara ttu a lesa greinina blainu gr.

  • lit Moody's fyrir jaratkvagreisluna vakti nokkra athygli og var meal annars nota til ess a styja skoun a nausynlegt vri a samykkja samninginn svo a rkissjur gti tt afturkvmt me skuldabrfatgfu erlendum fjrmlamrkuum. a vakti ennfremur athygli vi lit Moody's a v var lg veruleg hersla a stafesting Icesave-samningsins vri nausynleg forsenda fyrir v a hgt yri a afnema gjaldeyrishft. essi skoun er ndverum meii vi a sem kemur fram yfirgripsmiklum skrslum fjrmlafyrirtkjanna GAM Management, IFS-greiningar auk InDefence-hpsins um httutti samningsins og voru lagar fyrir Alingi snum tma. essum skrslum kemur efnislega fram a gjaldeyrishtta samningsins s slk a erfitt s a mynda sr a hgt s a afnema gjaldeyrsihft mean a hann er gildi. Ekki arf a gefa sr neinar fgasveiflur gengi krnunnar til ess a f t grarlegan kostna vi samninginn. annig kemur fram skrslu GAM Management a endanlegur kostnaur hefi geta fari r v a vera 44 milljarar, s mia vi 2% styrkingu hverjum rsfjrungi samningstmanum, a vera 155 milljarar s mia vi 2% veikingu tmanum. etta miast vi a engar breytingar veri endurheimtutlun skilanefndar Landsbankans. Veri endurheimturnar til a mynda 10% lakari yri endanlegur kostnaur 212 milljarar.
  • Af essum skum tldu margir srfringar einsnt a mgulegt yri a stga nein veigamikil skref tt a afnmi gjaldeyrishafta mean Icesave-samningurinn vri gildi vert a sem er sagt Moody's-litinu. raun m leia a v lkum a srfringar Selabankans hafi einmitt gefi sr a egar eir skiluu inn liti snu httu og kostnai vegna Icesave-samningsins til fjrlaganefndar. v er gengi t fr eirri forsendu vi treikning endanlegum kostnai rkissjs vegna samningsins a gengi slensku krnunnar yri stugt fyrir utan hflega styrkingu samningstmanum. Slkur stugleiki hefur ekki einkennt krnuna gegnum tina og ar af leiandi tlkuu margir lit Selabankans ann veg a bankinn mltist til ess a fram yri stust vi gjaldeyrishft. a kom reyndar daginn, eins og sar verur viki a me tgfu bankans tlun sinni um afnm gjaldeyrishafta, en hn felur a sr a hftin vera fest sessi allt a til rsins 2015.

Lesi blainu sjlfu!JVJ.


Financial Times tekur enn afstu me slandi leiara: Skammar Breta og Hollendinga fyrir hrsni Icesave-mlinu

etta eru tindi fyrir brezka ramenn ekki sur en slendinga. arna er a sg "hrsni hj Bretum og Hollendingum a halda v fram a slendingar eigi a borga rijung tekna sinna fyrir erlendar innistur n dmsrskurar."

  • Jhanna Margrt Gsladttir skrifar um etta ml Vsir.is:
  • Skammar Breta og Hollendinga fyrir hrsni Icesavemlinu


  • Leiarahfundur Financial Times segir a hrsni hj Bretum og Hollendingum a halda v fram a slendingar eigi a borga rijung tekna sinna fyrir erlendar innistur n dmsrskurar.

  • etta kemur fram leiara sem birtist viskiptablainu Financial Times gr. ar segir a egar slendingar stu frammi fyrir annarri jaratkvagreislu hefi veri afsakanlegt fyrir a lta undan eftir ga mtstu. ess sta hafi meirihluti jarinnar staist einelti Breta og Hollendinga og neita a greia skuldir einkarekinna banka nema me dmsrskuri.

  • Hfundur dist a rjsku slendinga a gti ori eim drkeypt, ea ekki, ar sem hann telur slendinga vera me gott dmsml hndum. Afstaa eirra jaratkvagreislunni um Icesave afsanni a ekki s anna hgt en a greia skuldir bankastofnana.
  • Hann segir lklegt a niurstaa jaratkvagreislunnar muni hafa hrif samning slands vi Aljagjaldeyrissjinn. Hins vegar geti Bretar og Hollendingar tafi fyrir umskn slands a Evrpusambandinu. a vri sorglegt a refsa landi fyrir a lta reyna rtt sinn fyrir dmstlum.

etta eru ngjuleg tindi, enn einu sinni fr ritstjrum essa fremsta blas viskiptalfi Bretlands – ekki beint vitnisburur um gan mlsta eirra eigin ramanna!

Skyldi Steingrmur lta sr etta a kenningu vera? Og hvernig er me alla siferispostulana, sem hldu v fram, a okkur bri a borga essar afar yngjandi skuldir einkabanka? Skyldu Njrur P. Njarvk, Gumundur Heiar Frmannsson ea Gumundur Andri Thorsson lesa Financial Times og Wall Street Journal? Kannski kominn tmi til?

JVJ.


FORSETINN OKKAR STERKASTI LEITOGI.

Forsetinn, lafur Ragnar Grmsson, er okkar langhfasti leitogi a mnum dmi. Hann hefur nnast einn leitoga skrt ml okkar og stu vegna ICESAVE erlendis. Og tullega. Mest af llu kom forsetinn veg fyrir lsanlega niurlgingu slensks almennings egar hann skrifai ekki undir kgunarsamninginn.

Hinn almenni maur hefur lka ori a verjast erlendum fjlmilum ar sem ekki geri rkisstjrnin a. Rkisstjrnin hefur aldrei komi fram opinberlega og lst yfir a krafa Breta, Hollendinga og Evrpusambandsins um rkisbyrg ICESAVE standist engin lg. Og enn sur stai lappirnar gegn krfunni. Og a er forkastanlegt. gmundur geri a a vsu en vi misstum hann a lokum ofan svartholi.

Jhanna hefur fr upphafi mlsins heimta rkisbyrg. hfu Jhnnu hefur veri haldi fast uppi af hverjum einasta manni hennar flokki og rkisstjrninni sem heild, ICESAVE-STJRNINNI. treka skal Jhanna fara fram opinberlega og eyileggja mlsta okkar lofandi llum heiminum a vi tlum a borga SKULDIR OKKAR eins og a komi rkisbyrg ICESAVE vi.

skiljanlega Evrpurkislngunin hefur veri mesti skavaldurinn. Vilji og tlun flokksins og fylgjenda var a fallast allar grimmilegu og lglegu krfur evrpsku rkjanna nnast sar og styggja au ekki. Gti skemmt fyrir i viti. Og stefna rkiseigum strhttu. ann veikleika hafa rukkararnir oft nota, dmin eru endalaus. Og gera enn dag eins og ekkert vri:
Holland hindri ESB-aild og samvinnu vi AGS

ttast fordmi slands

Forysta VG og mest allur flokkurinn hlddu eins og ms nokkrir eirra hafi hafna kgunarsamningnum. Vst vildi Steingrmur alls, alls, ALLS ekki a Sjlfstisflokkurinn kmist aftur a vldum og tlai a hanga og hanga lmdur vi sti hann skkti landinu s fyrir.

Elle Ericsson.

BBC:

UK 'will get Iceland money back'


Iceland's President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson
Mr Grimsson had refused to sign the latest repayment plan, triggering the referendum.

Iceland's President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson has said that the UK and the Netherlands will get back the 4bn euros (3.5bn) they paid when Iceland's banking system collapsed in 2008.

That is despite the country rejecting the latest repayment plan in a referendum at the weekend.

Mr Grimsson told the BBC assets from the collapsed bank Landsbanki would "in all likelihood" cover what was owed.

The UK has said the matter will go to an international court.

Iceland's three main banks collapsed in October 2008.

Landsbanki ran savings accounts in the UK and the Netherlands under the name Icesave.

When it collapsed, the British and Dutch governments had to reimburse 400,000 citizens - and Iceland had to decide how to repay that money.

Guarantee question.
The weekend result marked the second time a referendum has rejected a repayment deal.

Mr Grimsson said that it was not an issue about paying or not paying, but a question of whether there is a state guarantee and how that would be interpreted under the European regulatory framework.

"I think the primary message [from the referendum] is that before ordinary people are asked to pay for failed banks, the assets inside the estate of these banks should be used to pay the subs," Mr Grimsson told Radio 4's Today.

"That is why the people of Iceland emphasised that Britain and the Netherlands are going to get certainly up to $9bn out of the estate of Landsbanki.

"The first payment will be this December, and in all likelihood this will cover what was paid by Britain and the Netherlands two years ago.

"But to ask for a state guarantee and that ordinary people should shoulder the responsibility is highly doubtful and definitely can be disputed within the European legislative framework."

But he added that if the matter did end up in an international court, "of course" Iceland would abide by the court's ruling.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13047176


mbl.is Bretar f peningana aftur
Tilkynna um vieigandi tengingu vi frtt

Michael Hudson: Why Iceland Voted ‘No”. N grein hans birt erlendis - og hr!

About 75% of Iceland’s voters turned out on Saturday to reject the Social Democratic-Green government’s proposal to pay $5.2 billion to the British and Dutch bank insurance agencies for the Landsbanki-Icesave collapse. Every one of Iceland’s six electoral districts voted in the “No” column – by a national margin of 60% (down from 93% in January 2010).

The vote reflected widespread belief that government negotiators had not been vigorous in pleading Iceland’s legal case. The situation is reminiscent of World War I’s Inter-Ally war debt tangle. Lloyd George described the negotiations between U.S. Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon and Stanley Baldwin regarding Britain’s arms debt as “a negotiation between a weasel and its quarry. The result was a bargain which has brought international debt collection into disrepute … the Treasury officials were not exactly bluffing, but they put forward their full demand as a start in the conversations, and to their surprise Dr. Baldwin said he thought the terms were fair, and accepted them. … this crude job, jocularly called a ‘settlement,’ was to have a disastrous effect upon the whole further course of negotiations …”

And so it was with Iceland’s negotiation with Britain. True, they got a longer payment period for the Icesave payout. But how is Iceland to obtain the pounds sterling and Euros in the face of its shrinking economy. This is the major payment risk that is still unaddressed. It threatens to plunge the krona’s exchange rate.

The settlement proposal did lower the interest rates from 5.5% to 3.2%, but it included running interest charges on the bailout since 2008. It even included the extra-high interest charges that led depositors to put their funds in Icesave in the first place. Icelanders viewed these interest premiums as compensation for risks – that were taken and should be lost by the high-interest Internet depositors.

So the Icesave problem will now go to the courts. The relevant EU directive states that “that the cost of financing such schemes must be borne, in principle, by credit institutions themselves.” As priority claimants Britain and the Netherlands will indeed get the lion’s share of what is left from the Landsbanki corpse. That was not the issue before Iceland’s voters. They simply aimed at saving Iceland from an open-ended obligation to take the bank’s losses onto the public balance sheet without a clear plan of just how Iceland is to get the money to pay.

Prime Minister Johanna Sigurdardottir warns that the vote may trigger “political and economic chaos.” But trying to pay also threatens this. The past year has seen the disastrous experience of Greece, Ireland and now Portugal in taking reckless private sector bank debts onto the public balance sheet. It is hard to expect any sovereign nation to impose a decade or more of deep depression on its economy inasmuch as international law permits every nation to act in its own vital interests.

Attempts by creditors to persuade nations to bail out their banks at public expense thus is ultimately an exercise in public relations. Icelanders have seen how successful Argentina has been since it imposed a crew haircut on its creditors. They also have seen the economic and political disruption in Ireland and Greece resulting from trying to pay beyond their means.

Creditors did not give accurate advice when they told Ireland that it could pay for its bank failures without plunging the economy into depression. Ireland’s experience stands as a warning to other countries about trusting overly optimistic forecasts by central bankers. In Iceland’s case, in November 2008 the IMF staff projected yearend-2009 gross external public and private debt at 160% of GDP – but observed that an exchange rate depreciation of 30% would push the ratio to 240% of GDP, which would be “clearly unsustainable.” But the most recent IMF staff report (January 14, 2011) shows end-2009 gross external debt at 308% of GDP, and estimates end-2010 gross external debt at 333% – even before taking the Icesave and other debts into account!

The main problem with Iceland’s obligation to Britain and the Netherlands is that foreign debt is not paid out of GDP. Apart from what is recovered from Landsbanki (now with the help of Britain’s Serious Fraud Office), the money must be paid in exports. But there has been no negotiation with Britain and Holland over just what Icelandic goods and services these countries would be willing to take in payment. Already in the 1920s, John Maynard Keynes pointed ou tthat the Allied creditor nation had to take some responsibility just how Germany could pay its reparations, if not by exporting more to these countries. In practice, German cities borrowed in New York, turned the dollars over to the Reichsbank, which paid Britain and France, which paid the money back to the U.S. Government for their Inter-Ally Arms debts. In other words, Germany tried to “borrow its way out of debt.” It never works over time.

The normal practice would be for Iceland to appoint a Group of Experts to lay out the strongest possible case. No sovereign nation can be expected to acquiesce in imposing a generation of financial austerity, economic shrinkage and forced emigration of labor to pay for the failed neoliberal experiment that has dragged down so many other European economies.

Sj einnig essa nlegu grein hr:

MICHAEL HUDSON: GRIMMD GEGN SLENDINGUM.


Blaamaur The Daily Telegraph segir brezkum rherra a skammast sn vegna htana um a lgskja sland

ar er kvrun Darlings hausti 2008 kllu "half-witted" og plitkDannys Alexander gegn okkur kllu "this bullying" og (beint) ofsknir.

For bullying Iceland, Danny Alexander should be ashamed of himself

Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander with David Cameron  (Photo: PA)

Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander with David Cameron (Photo: PA)

One of the main problems facing George Osborne and Danny Alexander is that they have to deal on a near daily basis with the shambles they inherited from Alistair Darling and Gordon Brown.

In general they are sorting out the mess fairly well, but there have been some bad mistakes. For example, Darling’s reckless decision to bail out bad Europe debts, made last May during the final hours of his time at the Treasury, should have been resisted by Osborne at the time.

The truth is that Darling was out of his depth. Another dreadful decision came earlier, when he committed the British state to guarantee depositors in Icesave when its Icelandic parent, Landesbanki, collapsed. They were certainly not automatically protected by any British deposit insurance scheme. They should have paid the price for this greed and lack of care. Now Danny Alexander is compounding the wretched Darling’s original mistake by threatening to take poor Iceland through the courts.

There is no need to persecute poor Iceland as a result of Darling’s half-witted decision. I hope Iceland resists this bullying by Danny Alexander, and I hope it wins in the courts. Reportedly Moody’s is threatening to downgrade Iceland’s credit rating yet further as a result of this Treasury vindictiveness. We should be ashamed of ourselves.


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